Arnold hated his job. As a government statistician, his work in investigating population densities and changes, death rates and the like was unchallenging, to say the least. But with only two years to serve before retirement and a pension he knew he had no choice but to struggle through the boredom.
One evening, after some particularly depressing world news headlines, he wondered if it might be possible to statistically predict and, ideally, prevent wars.
For a year he looked at the problem in his own time from all angles, and at last he saw a possible way forward, involving novel variations of several accepted statistical equations.
He gathered the data he thought he needed from his own and a friendly neighbouring country’s published information and set his computer to calculate the results. It quickly produced an answer: his country and its neighbour would be at war within two years, plus or minus three months, with a likelihood of eighty per cent, plus or minus six per cent.
Horrified, Arnold checked and double-checked his data and equations, found a few minor errors and re-ran the program. This time it predicted war within twenty months.
That Monday morning an apprehensive Arnold took his results into work to show his boss, who would undoubtably take it to the department head, and maybe up to the President, which was exactly what happened.
Within an hour of the President seeing his work, three grim-faced men strode into Arnold’s office and took him, his laptop and his printed results to a sub-basement room he had never seen before. ‘Who else knows about this nonsense?’ said the most intimidating of the men.
‘No-one,’ said Arnold. ‘I worked entirely alone in my own time, and brought my results in today to let the government know there is a strong possibility of war. If a few variables are changed war can be delayed or even prevented. I was sure the President would want to know this rather than sleepwalk into a conflict that could cost many lives.’
‘Good,’ said the President when he was told that Arnold’s work had not been disseminated elsewhere. ‘We’ll go ahead with the invasion as planned, just a little earlier than I would have liked in case anyone else figures this out. Increase the defence budget by three per cent per annum from today, run intensive exercises involving all armed services and bring forward the plans to commandeer civilian aircraft and shipping. Oh, and get my trust to increase its holdings in military-industrial stocks, using the usual nominee accounts and offshore companies.’
‘Yes, Mr President,’ said everyone, making a mental note to do the same.
In solitary confinement, Arnold spends his days with pencil and paper calculating his chances of release. The answers always came back as zero.
One evening, after some particularly depressing world news headlines, he wondered if it might be possible to statistically predict and, ideally, prevent wars.
For a year he looked at the problem in his own time from all angles, and at last he saw a possible way forward, involving novel variations of several accepted statistical equations.
He gathered the data he thought he needed from his own and a friendly neighbouring country’s published information and set his computer to calculate the results. It quickly produced an answer: his country and its neighbour would be at war within two years, plus or minus three months, with a likelihood of eighty per cent, plus or minus six per cent.
Horrified, Arnold checked and double-checked his data and equations, found a few minor errors and re-ran the program. This time it predicted war within twenty months.
That Monday morning an apprehensive Arnold took his results into work to show his boss, who would undoubtably take it to the department head, and maybe up to the President, which was exactly what happened.
Within an hour of the President seeing his work, three grim-faced men strode into Arnold’s office and took him, his laptop and his printed results to a sub-basement room he had never seen before. ‘Who else knows about this nonsense?’ said the most intimidating of the men.
‘No-one,’ said Arnold. ‘I worked entirely alone in my own time, and brought my results in today to let the government know there is a strong possibility of war. If a few variables are changed war can be delayed or even prevented. I was sure the President would want to know this rather than sleepwalk into a conflict that could cost many lives.’
‘Good,’ said the President when he was told that Arnold’s work had not been disseminated elsewhere. ‘We’ll go ahead with the invasion as planned, just a little earlier than I would have liked in case anyone else figures this out. Increase the defence budget by three per cent per annum from today, run intensive exercises involving all armed services and bring forward the plans to commandeer civilian aircraft and shipping. Oh, and get my trust to increase its holdings in military-industrial stocks, using the usual nominee accounts and offshore companies.’
‘Yes, Mr President,’ said everyone, making a mental note to do the same.
In solitary confinement, Arnold spends his days with pencil and paper calculating his chances of release. The answers always came back as zero.
